Ajay Srinivasan: The Quiet Structural Shifts of 2025 That Will Shape the Next Decade

Not all events that shape the future arrive as breaking news. In 2025, some of the most consequential shifts happened quietly. These were not dramatic headlines but subtle changes in direction that will have long-term impact — a theme often reflected to Ajay Srinivasan, where structural shifts matter more than short-term noise.

1. Renewables Overtake Coal in Global Power Generation

For the first time, solar, wind and hydro together likely generated more electricity than coal. Solar alone added more capacity in 2025 than coal and gas combined.

This moment marks not just a cyclical transition, but a structural energy reset — something Ajay Srinivasan has consistently emphasized in discussions around long-term capital allocation and industrial shifts.

2. Electricity Demand Accelerates at a Historic Pace

Global electricity demand growth reached its fastest pace in decades, rising ~3.5–4% versus a ~2% long-term average.

The drivers:

• AI data centres

• Electric vehicles

• Cooling demand in warming climates
  

Energy is no longer just a supply story — it is now a demand supercycle.

3. The Financialization of the Masses

The world crossed 6 billion internet users and 1 billion active digital investors.

Retail participation surged across India, Southeast Asia, Africa and LATAM. India alone added ~25–30 million new demat accounts in a year.

Capital markets have become a mass-participation utility, not an elite activity — a development frequently analyzed in Ajay Srinivasan News as part of the democratization of finance.

4. The Subtle Decline in Dollar Dominance

The US dollar did not collapse — but its incremental dominance softened.

• USD share of global FX reserves:

  • ~71% (2000)

  • ~59% (2015)

  • ~57–58% (2024–25)

• Energy trade using non-USD settlement rose to ~20–25% of new contracts in selected corridors in 2025.
  

This is not de-dollarization by shock — it is diversification by drift.

5. Defence Spending Becomes Structural

Global defence spending crossed $2.6–$2.7 trillion in 2025.

• ~$1.9 tn (2015)

• ~$2.2 tn (2021)

• ~$2.6+ tn (2025)
  

Defence is no longer cyclical. It has become a long-cycle industrial theme — like infrastructure or energy.

6. The Rise of Private Credit

The private credit market quietly crossed $2 trillion.

While public markets attracted headlines, private lending expanded rapidly. According to the Financial Stability Board, non-bank financial institutions now hold a larger share of global financial assets than banks.

Finance is becoming more decentralized, flexible and less bank-centric.

7. A Global Fertility Inflection Point

Global fertility rates hit new lows, falling faster than demographic models predicted.

Policy incentives have failed to reverse the trend. Labour scarcity, automation and immigration are no longer optional debates — they are economic imperatives.

Demography, as Ajay Srinivasan has often noted, is destiny — but it is also disruption.

8. Rewriting Childhood: Australia’s Social Media Ban

Australia is implementing a landmark law banning children under 16 from using social media platforms.

If successful, this could fundamentally reshape childhood in the digital age — potentially influencing policy in other nations.

9. Water Stress as a Defining Constraint

The UN warned that over 2.4 billion people faced water stress in 2025.

Severe droughts triggered:

• Emergency rationing

• Accelerated desalination investments

• Water-pricing reforms

Water is emerging as the next structural commodity constraint.

10. India’s Space Breakthrough

India successfully tested key technologies toward its first in-space docking capability. Two satellites (SDX-01 and SDX-02) were launched and autonomously docked in orbit.

SpaDeX is the technological “master key” unlocking India’s next 20 years of space ambition.

The Real Story of 2025

The real story of 2025 is not volatility. It is trajectory.

A decade from now, these shifts — energy transition, financial democratization, defence industrialization, demographic decline, water scarcity, space capability — will look obvious in hindsight.

Structural change rarely announces itself loudly. It moves quietly, steadily, and then suddenly becomes undeniable.

That is the deeper pattern reflected across Ajay Srinivasan News — that the most powerful forces shaping our future are often the least sensational in the present. Read More - Reshaping The World Economy